KP 8

EST: KP8. Teadetetahvel Ülikooli 16 maja seinal 

Siin von Bocki majas on läbi ajaloo peavarju leidnud hulk Tartu Ülikooli asutusi ja teaduskondi. 19. sajandi lõpust 1940. aastateni teati seda hoonet ülikooli polikliinikuna. 1895. aastal kolis ülikooli peahoonest siia meteoroloogia kabinet. 

Millalgi 1901. aasta sügise hakul ilmus polikliiniku ukse kõrvale must teadetetahvel, mille klaasi taha pandi üles järgnevate päevade ilmaprognoos. Selline avalik väljapanek oli Tartu Ülikooli Meteoroloogia Observatooriumi (Metobs) direktori professor Boriss Sreznevski (1857–1934) väga julge samm. Polnud ju tollal usaldusväärseid ennustusmeetodeid veel välja kujunenud ja ka ilmakaartide koostamise põhimõtted olid alles verivärsked. Endiselt arutati päris tõsiselt selle üle, kuidas ennustada ilma kuufaaside põhjal. Ent professor Sreznevski oli sünoptika uutest meetoditest suures vaimustuses. 

Me ei tea toonastest prognoosidest kuigi paljut. 20. sajandi algusaastate ajalehtedes ilmunud nappide teadete põhjal võib oletada, et Tartus tehtud prognoosi aluseks olid Peterburi Geofüüsika Peaobservatooriumist telegraafi teel saabunud andmed. Nende alusel joonistati ilmakaart, mida võrreldi eelmiste päevade kaartidega. Tõenäoliselt kõrvutati kohalikku prognoosi Liivimaa kubermangu ilmavaatlusjaamadest saadud andmetega. On teada, et 1902. aastal saabus Metobsisse iga päev umbes 80 ilmatelegrammi ja telefoniteadet. 

Peterburi Geofüüsika Peaobservatooriumi sünoptikud väitsid toona, et nende ennustused täituvad 75%-l juhtudest. Pole teada, milline oli see protsent Tartu prognoosidel, aga ilmselt mitte väga suur, sest professor Sreznevski ennustused said tartlastele naerualuseks. Juba 1902. aasta suvel ilmus Postimehes satiiriline kirjutis sellest, kuidas üks lapsehoidja oli tööst ilma jäänud, sest ta oli üritanud sakste nõudmisel nende lapsi ülikooli ilmaennustusele vastavalt riidesse panna ja eksinud alati. Ajalehes tõdeti, et sageli ilmusid ilmateated liiga hilja ja olid vananenud. 

Maja parempoolse sissepääsu kõrval on näha must teadetetahvel, millelt möödakäija loeb viimaseid ilmaprognoose 

Foto: Johannes Pääsuke, 1914. Eesti Rahva Muuseum (https://www.muis.ee/museaalview/661727) 

ENG: CP8. Notice board on the wall of Ülikooli 16 

The Von Bock House has been the home of a wide range of University of Tartu institutions and faculties throughout its history. From the late 19th century until the 1940s, the building was known as the university’s policlinic. In 1895, the meteorology cabinet moved here from the university’s main building. 

Some time in the early autumn of 1901, a black notice board appeared next to the door of the policlinic, where the weather forecast for the next few days started to be displayed. Such public display of weather forecasts was a very bold initiative of Professor Boris Sreznevsky (1857–1934), Director of the University of Tartu Meteorological Observatory (Metobs). At the time, reliable forecasting methods had not yet been developed, and the principles for creating weather maps were only starting to form. People were still seriously discussing how to predict the weather based on lunar phases. However, Professor Sreznevsky was highly enthusiastic about the new methods of synoptics. 

We do not know much about the forecasts of that time. Based on the brief reports published in newspapers in the early 20th century, it can be assumed that the forecasts made in Tartu were based on data received via telegraph from the Main Geophysical Observatory in St Petersburg. Using these data, a weather map was drawn up and then compared with maps from previous days. The local forecast was likely refined using data from weather observation stations in the Governorate of Livonia. It is known that in 1902, Metobs received around 80 weather telegrams and telephone messages every day. 

At the time, synopticians at the Main Geophysical Observatory in St Petersburg claimed that their forecasts were accurate in 75% of cases. It is not known what the accuracy rate was for forecasts made in Tartu, but probably not very high, as Professor Sreznevsky’s forecasts became a subject of ridicule among Tartu residents. As early as the summer of 1902, the newspaper Postimees published a satirical piece about a nanny who had lost her job because she had tried, at her employers’ request, to dress their children according to the university’s weather forecast – but always got it wrong. The article noted that weather forecasts often arrived too late and were already outdated. 

A passer-by is reading the latest weather forecast displayed on the black notice board next to the right-hand entrance 

Photo: Johannes Pääsuke, 1914. Estonian National Museum